Abstract

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recommended 1.5°C carbon reduction target, requiring powerful enforcement from major economies. China, the largest CO2 emitter, is facing severe difficulties for both variable renewable accommodation and decarbonization of hard-to-abate sectors. Hydrogen, as a critical green energy carrier bridging renewable to end-users, faces significant obstacles in real-world deployment such as costly transportation, storage and fuel-cell adoption. Affordable and coordinated hydrogen deployment plan to accelerate the carbon-neutral transition remains ambiguous. Here, we present cost-effective carbon-neutral transition pathways for entire energy economy of China emphasizing the significant role of hydrogen and derivatives as green energy carriers, considering high-resolution renewable deployments, hourly power system operations in 29 provincial regions, over 46,000 rail/road/marine/pipeline transfer routing of hydrogen derivatives, process-level fuel adoption strategies in all end-use sectors. Results show that incorporating hydrogen and derivatives can reduce the overall transition cost by $ 10.7 trillion compared with renewable and electrification pathways, achieving negative carbon abatement costs ($-6.15/ton), eliminating external oil import expenses, equivalent to over 50% of China trade surplus (2023 level)1, significantly boosting employment and economic growth. Hydrogen derivative based transition pathway offers a vital direction for affordable and secure decarbonization for China and beyond under volatile international energy markets.

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Author information

Author notes

  1. These authors contributed equally: Xinyu Chen, Xinyang Guo, Xi Yang

Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Management, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China

    Xinyu Chen

  2. State Key Laboratory of Advanced Electromagnetic Engineering and Technology, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China

    Xinyu Chen & Xinyang Guo

  3. John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA

    Xinyang Guo, Xi Yang & Michael McElroy

  4. Institute of Blue and Green Development, Shandong University, Weihai, China

    Jiashuo Li

  5. Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA

    Xi Yang & Michael McElroy

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  1. Xinyu Chen View author publications

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  2. Xinyang Guo View author publications

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  3. Xi Yang View author publications

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Corresponding authors

Correspondence to Xinyu Chen, Xinyang Guo, Jiashuo Li or Michael McElroy.

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Supplementary methods, equations and discussion documenting the HeD-MISSION framework. The file includes 52 figures and 160 tables covering model architecture, scenario settings, data sources, variables and constraints, technology parameters, sectoral formulations, validation benchmarks, cost and emissions accounting, sensitivity analyses, and resource and implementation considerations.

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Chen, X., Guo, X., Yang, X. et al. Hydrogen Derivatives Enable Cost-Effective Carbon Neutrality in China. Nature (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-11351-4

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  • Received: 31 October 2025

  • Accepted: 22 October 2026

  • Published: 05 November 2026

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-11351-4

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